Tongwei (600438): Batteries, silicon materials have bottomed out

Tongwei (600438): Batteries, silicon materials have bottomed out
The company released three quarterly reports. In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s revenue was attributed to net profit, and the net profit after deduction was 28 billion yuan, 22.4 billion, 20.900 million, a year-on-year growth of 31%, 35%, 33%.Among them, Q3 income was attributed to net profit, and net profit after deducting non-attribution increased by 33%, 7%, and 3%, respectively.Q3 Domestic installed capacity was less than expected, which led to a decrease in the price gap of battery chips. At present, second-tier battery chip companies are no longer profitable. It is expected that the profitability of the battery chip industry will return in the future. At the same time, the company is expected to achieve a certain level by introducing large silicon chips and improving efficiencyThe cost has fallen.The company’s new silicon material base has been put into production as scheduled this year. The proportion of dense materials in the new production line and the overall cost have made great progress. The overall cost of converting the new production line to climb and ramp up may continue to decrease.After the rapid price reduction of silicon materials in Q2, the industry’s existing capacity has begun to transform.In summary, the company’s silicon production capacity will be fully released next year, and the cell offset will also have a large increase. The increase in volume will bring corresponding performance growth, maintaining the “strongly recommended -A” rating and 15.5-16 years old.5 yuan target price. Performance was basically in line with expectations.In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s revenue was attributed to net profit, and the net profit 南宁桑拿 after deduction was 28 billion yuan, 22.4 billion, 20.900 million, a year-on-year growth of 31%, 35%, 33%.Among them, Q3 income was attributed to net profit, and non-attributed net profit was 11.9 billion and 7 respectively.900 million, 700 million, an increase of 33%, 7%, 3% each year.Performance was basically in line with expectations. Segmentation of business.The company’s Q3 battery chip was released.About 5GW, the profit of the single crystal battery chip was reduced to zero.04 yuan / watt, polycrystalline battery net profit 0.06 yuan / watt, the battery segment contributed profits1.7-1.900 million. The company’s new Leshan and Baotou silicon materials plants have reached Q3 production capacity. It is expected that Q3 production and sales will be about 1.5 samples, the average net profit per ton is 0.80,000 yuan / ton, 北京夜生活网 contributing a net profit of 1.3-1.400000000.The agricultural and pastoral sector contributed about 300 million US dollars in net profit, and the annual decline was mainly due to profit from customers.The company’s existing power plant installed nearly 1.5GW, it is estimated that Q3 will contribute 0 net profit.600 million. Expansion of production capacity has gradually reached production, and the profit of battery cells has bottomed out. The subsequent volume of silicon materials in turn will rebound.As the production capacity of silicon materials and cells has been put into production in the first half of the year, the company ‘s net fixed assets have increased sharply to US $ 24.8 billion. Currently, the US $ 900 million in construction is mainly battery projects, but it does not rule out that the company will continue to promote the expansion of silicon materials.At the end of this year, the company’s effective battery capacity will be close to 20GW. At present, most of the second-tier battery companies are no longer profitable; the company’s silicon material considers the ability to expand the capacity and the displacement is close to 9.5 Trace amount, silicon material is in the chemical industry state, and its shape has been relatively clear. Large amounts of old production capacity have been replaced. The company’s new production line has significant cost advantages and there is still some room for optimization.Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective, the company’s battery profit situation is at the bottom, and the profit level of silicon materials will be boosted, so its product volume will bring corresponding growth. Investment suggestion: Maintain “Highly Recommended-A” rating, target price is 15.5-16 years old.5 yuan. Risk warning: domestic installed capacity is less than expected, overseas demand is less than expected, and new technologies are impacted.